Update August 22: 24 hours on Irene has reached hurricane strength and has become a bit more alarming for us.
If the forecasters' best guess should hold true then Saturday morning would be very very bad for us. Luckily things tend to change a lot and the storm's path over the north end of Hispanola should help quell things and give the storm more time to curve safely east of the U.S. coast.
However for now the storm seems poised to swing up our way. There's oodles more info over at the National Weather Service.
As always, we'll keep you posted.
First Report: Despite warnings of a fearful hurricane season in 2011, it has been quite calm on the East Coast of the United States.
There was one moment of angst when Emily began to churn, but that storm fell apart before reaching the foul line of the bowling lane.
But with the christening of Tropical Storm Irene we're back again to watch status. To be sure, as with Emily this would-be East Coast terrorizing hurricane could well fall apart as it traverses Haiti and Cuba, but even with that path the best guess is that the storm will still be churning and could well strike Florida as a hurricane.
But as with all things weather forecast, no one knows for sure, but here's the best thinking as of now from the National Hurricane Center: "The upper-level environment is expected to be quite favorable for strengthening throughout the forecast period as a result of low shear and a mid-oceanic trough to the east acting as a mass sink for the outflow in the eastern semicircle.
"However the intensity forecast is heavily dependent on how much interaction irene has with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and what the inner core of the cyclone becomes after it emerges off the northeast coast of Cuba in about 4 days. Once over the Florida straits however Irene will have at least 24 hours over some of the warmest water in the atlantic to tap into.
"The official forecast remains on the conservative side due to land effects and is close to a blend of ships and lgem statistical intensity models."
As always we'll keep an eye on it and pass along key updates.