Tropical Storm Emily is gearing up for a ride over the Dominican Republic and Haiti late tonight, and all questions on the future of the would-be-hurricane rest on what will happen as the storm becomes disorganized during its hiking excursion.
Right now bets are on Emily being able to reorganize and pose a good risk to the East Coast.
There's only an estimated 15% chance of Emily having dissipated in the next two days and a 45% chance given to the storm remaining a tropical storm status, or getting stronger still.
As the days go out from Haiti, the swirling mass of moisture is expected to curve towards the United States. But no longer do the computer models converge on suggesting the storm will find land somewhere in the heart of Florida, nor now South Carolina — it seems more likely that the tropical storm (or perhaps a weak hurricane) will curve along the coast, posing more risk to the Outer Banks.
The key moment will come on Friday as the storm likely moves over the Bahamas and conditions will emerge that will steer it towards the Lowcountry or further afar.
As you might guess, we'll be sure to keep you posted.
And while I wouldn't fret anytime soon, it's a good time to make sure your hurricane plan is in order.
And for some reason not entirely apparent to me at this moment, I'm feeling the need to watch Emily double — maybe it's just that name Emily sounds like a storm that wants to rough us up.